ACUS11 KWNS 021933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021932
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern
Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021932Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity
should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the
next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection
slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU
southward to the Palmer Divide.  This increase is occurring as
ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across
Wyoming overspreads the area.  Recently, a stronger storm has
initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while
capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the
initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather
event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas.

Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to
3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  As stronger mid-level westerly flow --
associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads
eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment
will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms.
Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts
are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within
the rather deeply mixed boundary layer.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000526 41490484 42460226 43200098 43049934 42239929
            40019946 39530177 39870481 41000526