ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021901
NDZ000-SDZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into far northern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021901Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
across portions of North Dakota this afternoon. A few stronger
storms will be accompanied by marginal hail/wind risk, but at this
time WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows convection
developing southward across south-central North Dakota, south of an
initial, strong storm now crossing Eddy County.  Meanwhile, some
increase in cumulus development is evident southwestward into
northwestern South Dakota, along a weak cool front.

Mixed-layer CAPE currently ranges from around 500 J/kg (northeastern
North Dakota) to 1500 to 2000 J/kg southwestward into northwestern
South Dakota.  This -- combined with modest shear (moderate/roughly
unidirectional southwesterly flow in the lower and middle
troposphere) suggests a few stronger multicell-type storms can be
expected this afternoon, potentially clustering into a larger MCS
this evening as storms shift eastward toward Minnesota.  Overall
severe risk should remain limited however, potentially precluding
the need for WW issuance.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46540170 46850076 47659983 48199877 48279816 47689747
            46919738 46039798 45670028 45870197 46540170