ACUS11 KWNS 020754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020754
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-020930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...southeast NE and northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020754Z - 020930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail will be possible through about
sunrise with an arc of elevated thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas to southeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Nearly simultaneous to the decay of an MCS over
southwest KS/northwest OK, a band of elevated convection intensified
across northeast KS/southeast NE. This activity appears to be driven
by low-level warm theta-e advection along the MUCAPE gradient. While
the 06Z HRRR has minimal reflection of this development, the
Hastings and Topeka VWPs indicate moderate low-level
south-southwesterly flow. Moderate upper-level west-northwesterlies
will remain adequate for transient supercell structures and hail
growth. Still, the cluster to loosely linear convective mode should
temper peak hail sizes to the 1-1.5 inches in diameter range.

..Grams/Thompson.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40109730 40569764 41319783 41459731 41469634 41229573
            40389524 39439504 38549544 38189602 38119674 38309714
            40109730