FXUS63 KFGF 011745 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Risks could include hail larger than half dollar, winds greater than 60 mph, and possibly a few tornadoes. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a low chance for isolated strong thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers have exited the region, and winds are beginning to get gusty. Wind gusts should stay sub-advisory level, but some around 25 MPH cannot be ruled out, especially in the Devils Lake Basin. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers in northwestern Minnesota are beginning to make their way towards the arrowhead, leaving behind clearer skies for the remainder of your Saturday. Highs in the low to mid 70s expected across the area. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Lightning associated with these showers have been randomly starting and stopping since originating over the Devils Lake Basin. These showers are moving fairly slowly to the east across our forecast area. These showers still look likely to stay north of highway 200. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...Synopsis... The upper jet continues to linger along the Canadian border early this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a pretty decent little shortwave along the Canadian border near the North Dakota/Manitoba/Saskatchewan intersection. The regional radar shows several areas of echoes across North Dakota, one extending from Bismarck to Pembina and the other closer to the above mentioned shortwave. Most of this is high based shower activity, but could still see a few lightning strikes as well. Most CAMs show this activity continuing to slide east along the Canadian border and exiting the Lake of the Woods area after sunrise. The rest of the day will be precipitation free with steady west winds, resulting in lowering afternoon humidity readings. Moisture begins to return northward into North Dakota tonight, although it will be slow. Not seeing much for a low level or upper jet, although there is weak 850mb warm advection and elevated instability. Despite this somewhat weak forcing, several CAMs break out scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of highway 200, and linger them into Sunday morning. NBM keeps it more isolated (20 percent chance) tonight into Sunday morning. If this activity does develop and linger, it could have some implications on the Sunday afternoon and evening event (thicker clouds could limit heating in some areas). ...Sunday afternoon and evening... Really don't anticipate a severe weather threat in this FA until late Sunday afternoon and evening. SPC has covered the entire FA in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) now in the latest Day 2 Outlook. There still remains uncertainty in exactly how this event may unfold. However, it is looking like a surface low and cold front should be somewhere over central North Dakota by 00z Monday. Along with precipitable water values rising to 1.25 to 1.50 inches along and ahead of this boundary, surface dewpoints are also progged to rise up to around 60F. There is a pretty nice 700mb shortwave that kicks eastward by 00z Monday, although the upper jet is not very impressive. Most CAM solutions break out a line of storms just to the west of this FA around 21z Sunday, potentially reaching the Devils Lake area by 00z Monday. This line of storms would continue pushing eastward into the Red River Valley during the evening. The HREF does show the potential for some longer duration UH tracks during this time frame. However, not sure exactly how long into the evening the severe potential would last. Not seeing a good consistent signal on the strength and focus of the low level jet. It does seem to be fairly strong, but could focus more north of the Canadian border. ...Tuesday afternoon and evening... The next shortwave and good chance for precipitation would be Tuesday into Tuesday night. Like with the Sunday event, the available moisture looks good again. The exact degree of instability is still in doubt, as there could be a fair amount of clouds (resulting in less heating) out ahead of the wave. These details will come into better focus in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. Winds will become light and variable around midnight in southern TAF sites (FAR & BJI), as a low passes over the area. More SH and TS coming Sunday afternoon, but Sunday morning should see winds out of the south around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH/MM DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...AH