ACUS11 KWNS 011909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011908
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...northeast Colorado...eastern Wyoming...Southwest
South Dakota...western Nebraska...and far northwest Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011908Z - 012045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Instability is increasing across northeast Colorado and
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
Dakota. A dryline extends from near Cheyenne, WY and across across
northeast Colorado where deeper cumulus have started to develop.
Strong heating west of this dryline has resulted in a mostly
uncapped environment. Northeast of this dryline, the environment
remains capped with cooler temperatures, but greater low-level
moisture streaming north. Additional thunderstorms are starting to
develop across southwest South Dakota in the vicinity of a northward
moving warm front.

Thunderstorms have already started to develop across the higher
terrain in northeast Colorado. Expect these storms to strengthen
through the afternoon as they encounter increasing instability with
eastward extent. Additional storms may form along the dryline,
particularly where convergence is maximized across southeast Wyoming
and into Weld County, Colorado. Effective shear is around 35 to 40
knots per regional VWPs which will support supercells. Large hail,
some 2+ inches, will be the primary threat with some severe wind
gusts also possible.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39280185 39040305 38920424 38980466 39610507 40130535
            40930520 42690503 43810499 44450398 44480286 44280176
            43210063 40680032 39630045 39280185