ACUS11 KWNS 010811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010811
NEZ000-COZ000-011015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010811Z - 011015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail should persist through
sunrise with a few elevated supercells across the western Nebraska
Panhandle vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A trio of elevated supercells have formed as a result
of a well-advertised overnight increase in low-level moisture
northward over the central High Plains. The northwestern most of
this trio, near Alliance, appears to be the deepest updraft. With
MUCAPE having increased to about 1000 J/kg coupled with moderate
northwesterly deep-layer shear, the threat for large hail will
probably persist for a few hours through at least sunrise. Low-level
flow appears to be relatively modest, yielding some uncertainty on
how long the severe hail threat will last. 00Z HREF signal suggests
relatively shorter-lived supercells should be expected, although the
00Z NSSL-MPAS runs indicated potential for a longer-lived, more
intense storm occurring.

..Grams/Thompson.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42660296 42330220 41930131 41520105 41100092 40930121
            40970205 41140265 41730336 42100373 42470385 42660296