ACUS11 KWNS 010454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010454
TXZ000-NMZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...West and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 010454Z - 010700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail will exist across
parts of west Texas over the next few hours. The severe threat could
impact areas to the southeast of WW 363, where a new weather watch,
or extension in area could be needed.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery across west Texas shows a
well-developed linear MCS located on the Caprock. This line of
strong to severe storms is on the northern edge of a strongly
unstable airmass, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range. This strong instability will likely help maintain convective
intensity with the line over the next few hours. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings ahead of the line have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest
3 km. This environment will likely continue to be favorable for a
wind-damage threat associated with the stronger elements near the
leading edge of the linear MCS. The strong instability and steep
mid-level lapse rates, evident on forecast soundings, will also
support a threat for isolated large hail.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33130214 33070290 32880324 32450320 32040298 31770264
            31630209 31610106 31809997 32229947 32909930 33859941
            34549996 34760092 34410140 33730156 33130214