ACUS11 KWNS 010129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010128
TXZ000-NMZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

Valid 010128Z - 010330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
continues.

SUMMARY...A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will likely continue this evening, as a cluster or line of strong to
severe thunderstorms moves southeastward across west Texas. New
watch issuance may be needed to the southeast of WW 360 later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
and Lubbock shows a relatively large cluster of strong to severe
storms currently straddling the New Mexico-Texas state-line. This
cluster is expected to become more organized as it moves
southeastward toward an axis of strong instability, currently
located over the eastern part of the Caprock. The RAP is estimating
MLCAPE within this corridor in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
addition, RAP forecast soundings across west Texas have 0-6 km shear
in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment should be favorable for isolated supercells
capable of large hail. Although the cells are primarily discrete,
some short-term solutions suggest that a transition to linear mode
will be possible. If this were to happen, the wind-damage threat
would likely increase, as the storms move southeastward into the
stronger instability.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33310289 32720200 32690120 32850079 33190053 33630045
            34170076 34510135 34980244 35140320 34840353 34150356
            33730340 33310289