FXUS66 KHNX 310226 CCA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
726 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A warming trend will continue on Friday which will result in
afternoon highs of 7 to 10 degrees above normal. There is a 65
to 85 percent probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95
degrees and a 10 to 30 percent probability for temperatures to
reach or exceed 100 degrees on Friday in the San Joaquin Valley.

2. Gusty west winds are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert.

3. Following a cool down over the weekend, a more significant
warming trend will take place next week with probabilities of
exceeding 105 degrees at 45 to 60 percent for most of the San
Joaquin Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. This increases the
heat risk for sensitive populations in the San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge over the northeast Pacific
is pushing back inland over CA today and bringing a warming
trend to our area as heights and thicknesses nudge upward. Most
of our CWFA is currently running 2 to 4 DEG F above yday at this
time.

The SREF is showing this upper ridge continuing to strengthen
on Friday which will result in a continuation of the ongoing
warming trend. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance indicates the
PoE of 95 DEG F or higher in most of the San Joaquin Valley on
Friday is between 65 and 85 percent, and the PoE of 100 DEG F or
higher in most of the San Joaquin Valley on Friday is between
10 and 30 percent.

An upper trough is progged to push across the PAC NW over the
weekend. This system will bring a cooling trend to our area over
the weekend with temperatures lowering to slightly above
seasonal normals by Sunday. It will also produce increased
onshore p-grads over our area and provide for a period of breezy
to windy conditions across the Mojave Desert Slopes and the
Kern County Desert areas between Saturday afternoon and Sunday
morning. The PoE of gusts exceeding 45 mph along the Mojave
Desert Slopes on Saturday night remains near 100 percent.

The medium range ensemble means are showing a strong upper
ridge building into the western CONUS between Monday and
Thursday with 500 mb heights exceeding 588 DM over our area by
midweek. This will result in temperatures trending upward each
day and by Wednesday afternoon daytime highs are expected to
exceed 100 DEG F across most of the San Joaquin Valley, West
Side Hills, lower Sierra foothills and the Kern County Deserts.
Moderate to high heat risks are progged for Wednesday and
Thursday, and as a result we will continue the messaging for
heat risk with the first anticiapted significant heat wave for
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...DAS
idss...Molina

weather.gov/hanford