FXUS65 KBOI 310942
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
342 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A weak upper ridge
supports dry conditions with mostly clear skies today.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today compared to
yesterday with highs around normal. An upper trough situated off
the west coast moves inland and reaches our area on Saturday.
Models have trended slightly wetter and more unstable compared
to previous solutions. Most of the latest high resolution models
are depicting some convection developing during the afternoon
that may persist through the evening ahead of a weak cold front,
so will introduce a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of
showers across most of SE Oregon and SW Idaho. There is also
enough instability for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of
thunderstorms in central Idaho. Temperatures trend warmer with
highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The cold front moves through
Saturday night, accompanied by local wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Dry conditions return on Sunday, although clouds increase ahead
of an approaching moist Pacific system. Rain is expected to
spread across northern areas overnight, mainly across Baker
County into the West Central ID Mountains.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Rain accompanying a moist
Pacific system will target the area on Monday. The bulk of the
rainfall is expected in the north, especially in the West
Central Mountains where there is a 30-60 percent chance of
rainfall totals exceeding an inch. Much lower amounts are
forecast further south, with little to no rainfall forecast near
the Nevada border. There is also enough instability, mainly in
SW Idaho, for a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Breezy
to locally windy conditions accompany the system, especially in
SE Oregon and near the ID/NV border with gusts in the 25-35 mph
range. Bulk of the model ensembles continue to show a
transition to a summer-like pattern by the end of the week with
highs trending from below normal early in the week to above
normal by midweek. There is a high probability (>60 percent) of
temperatures exceeding 90 degrees in the lower valleys
(including the Treasure Valley) Thursday and Friday. Dry
conditions prevail, although there is low confidence (less than
20 percent chance) of afternoon and evening showers over the
higher elevations late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Surface winds: variable mainly W-NW
up to 10 kt. 10k ft MSL winds: W-NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Light and variable winds becoming NW 5-10 kt after 18Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR through Sunday. Increased clouds and low
confidence (less than 30 percent chance) of showers and
thunderstorms in the w-central Idaho mtns north and east of
KMYL Saturday afternoon and evening. W-NW winds 5-15 kt with
local gusts to 25 kt Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW