ACUS11 KWNS 301927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301927
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado and western into
northern Nebraska and far southern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301927Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail/wind gusts may accompany the
stronger thunderstorms across portions of the central Plains as
storm coverage increases into the afternoon. Given likely low severe
coverage a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a diffuse cold
front that is meandering across northeast Colorado into eastern
South Dakota. Storm coverage will increase through the afternoon
since deep-layer ascent will increase as a mid-level trough grazes
the central Plains to the north. Given the northward passage of the
mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft, the more
favorable deep-layer shear will lag the cold front, so the
thunderstorms ahead of the front are not expected to become
organized on a widespread basis (precluding a WW issuance at this
time). However, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 60s
F surface dewpoints will yield up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots,
suggesting that at least isolated instances of severe wind or hail
may accompany the stronger storms. 19Z mesoanalysis also shows
strong low-level vertical vorticity coinciding with over 125 J/kg of
CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. As such, conditional potential exists for
a landspout if a strong updraft can anchor to the cold front.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39410348 41460085 43619890 44559781 44069755 43219788
            42039863 40999938 40310071 39110268 39060333 39410348