ACUS11 KWNS 301757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301757 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-302030- Mesoscale Discussion 1079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far southeast Colorado...and far southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301757Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over portions of the southern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, with some instances of hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and gusts exceeding 65 kts possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours pending favorable convective trends. DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation across the southern High Plains continues to modify a post-convective airmss, with CU and attempts at convective initiation noted from Union County, NM to Oldham County, TX. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates that appreciable MLCINH remains across the warm sector. However, continued diurnal heating amid clearing skies should erode remaining CINH and support greater storm development and coverage as the afternoon progresses. Thunderstorm development is most likely along baroclinic boundaries currently positioned along the NM/CO/KS border areas, and over the western TX Panhandle. By mid afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F in most locations as 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the southern High Plains, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level elongation and some curvature, but short segments in the mid to upper-levels, limiting effective bulk shear values to around 30-35 kts. As such, multicells and transient supercells are the expected mode of convection. Given ample buoyancy and at least modest deep-layer shear, severe wind and hail still appear likely with the more organized, longer-lasting thunderstorms. If a more robust supercell structure could be realized, 2+ inch diameter hail could occur. With forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming potentially well-mixed to almost 700 mb, a 65+ kt gust cannot be ruled out. Finally, ample low-level vertical vorticity is present in far southeastern Colorado in the presence of a weak surface low. If a thunderstorm can traverse this environment without becoming quickly outflow dominant, a landspout or hybrid supercell tornado is possible. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours if greater thunderstorm coverage become apparent. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35910015 35270036 34990109 34960232 35130297 35790345 36500391 37130385 37730329 38300213 38330111 38150057 37610022 36950008 35910015