FXUS66 KMTR 150414 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 914 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Forecast remains on track this evening with low stratus once again expected to persist across our coastal areas through at least the late morning tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be very similar to today, in the 60s near the coastline with 70s and 80s farther inland. Moderate to strong onshore flow will result in breezy afternoon winds with gusts up to 40 MPH across some of our gaps and passes. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Calm weather persists as the low pressure system that sits near southern California continues to move inland and the ridging pattern slightly strengthens. Overnight temperatures will be similar to last night with minimum temperatures reaching in the high 40s to mid 50s. Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm by a few degrees with inland areas seeing up to mid 70s to low 80s, while the coast will see temperatures in the 60s. Coastal stratus is expected to rebuild again tonight as the marine layer still sits about 1,500-2,000 feet near Ft. Ord. Therefore, don't be surprise to see another gloomy morning along the coast and in the valleys with clearing in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 The low pressure system sitting along the southwest of CONUS will continue to move eastward, allowing for a broad high pressure system over the ocean to slightly influence the area. This will bringing overall calm weather with some clear skies in the interior areas and some gloomy morning near the coast from the onshore flow. This pattern of cloudy mornings and clear skies by the afternoon for the coastal areas will likely repeat itself through the remainder of the week into Monday, with a slight chance of early morning drizzle in a few spots along the coast. The max temperatures will remain in the 60s along the coast, with interior areas reaching up to the mid 70s to mid 80s. The minimum temperatures overnight will stay relatively the same through the week with high 40s to mid 50s. By Sunday through Monday, another low pressure system off the coast will start to move closer to region. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures inland. Model ensembles show agreement that no precipitation will be associated with this troughing pattern thus far, and calm dry weather will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 IFR-LIFR stratus lingers through the TAF period at the coast with VFR through the evening elsewhere. Breezy to gusty northwest flow will continue through the evening, when winds will diminish through the night. Widespread IFR-LIFR stratus is expected to develop across the region in the inland valleys and clear out through the late morning hours. Any clearing at the coast will be patchy, short- lived, or both. Breezy onshore winds will also resume Wednesday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the evening with breezy and gusty northwest winds. IFR stratus expands into the terminal area after midnight tonight. OAK sees stratus filling in from the Golden Gate earlier in the evening. Ceilings will clear later Wednesday morning into another round of breezy northwest winds. Gusts on Wednesday afternoon and evening are not expected to exceed 20 knots. Some model guidance is showing a low confidence for stratus at the terminal on Wednesday evening, although highest confidence for stratus comes after the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR-LIFR stratus lingers at the immediate coast (save the area around MRY) and will push inland through the evening hours. Breezy onshore winds will diminish during the evening and resume later Wednesday morning, as the stratus pulls back to the immediate coast. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 425 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Rough seas continue to abate today and Wednesday as the pressure gradient slackens and winds decrease. A moderate NW swell will continue to keep significant wave heights elevated in the far NW coastal zone. Otherwise, favorable conditions will continue into the weekend, with stronger NW winds expected next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea