FXUS66 KOTX 141739 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1039 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will briefly rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures above normal and breezy winds across central Washington. Unsettled weather returns Thursday through the weekend as multiple systems move through the region. This will bring breezy winds to the region Thursday and Friday along with chances for mountain precipitation and a gradual temperature cooldown. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday and Wednesday: A shortwave trough that brought showers and isolated thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho yesterday evening is exiting to the east into Montana as an upper level ridge behinds to rebound to our west. Areas across far northeast Washington and north Idaho will see a small chance (10%) for weak showers this afternoon, with dry weather expected for the rest of the forecast area. The influence from the ridge over the Inland Northwest will not be as strong as it was this past weekend as systems over northern BC inhibits it from amplifying. Under a broad northwest flow aloft, temperatures will warm by a couple degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Continued onshore low level flow will support a tight cross-Cascade pressure gradient Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with breezy winds across central Washington. Models are hinting that Wednesday’s winds will be stronger across the region compared to Tuesday, notably for central Washington, as winds begin to increase aloft and a strong west-northwest oriented jet streak sets up slightly north of the Canadian border. Right now, the NBM is giving the Waterville Plateau a 40-50% chance for wind gusts over 45 mph and a 20% chance for areas such as Wenatchee, Ephrata, and Mansfield for wind gusts over 45 mph. /vmt Thursday: A cold front will arrive on Thursday, but the majority of the model guidance brings it through late enough in the day we won't cool much until the evening. High temperatures from the National Blend of Models (NBM) ranges from the mid 70s in north Idaho to the mid 80s in the Columbia Basin and the L-C Valley. The NBM limits chances for showers to a 20 to 30 percent to the high terrain of the north Washington Cascades, and the mountains along the Washington/Canada border Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. For the majority of the Inland Northwest, gusty west winds will be the most notable weather change late in the day and through the night. West winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are likely in the evening through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin into the Spokane and Pullman areas. Winds of this magnitude will be capable of producing localized blowing dust near fields that have been recently planted. The operational run of the GFS is stronger than roughly 90 percent of the ensembles with sustained winds close to 30 mph for the areas mentioned above. While this scenario appears unlikely at this time, we will be watching the wind forecast closely on Thursday. Friday: Breezy west winds will continue into Friday as cooler maritime air spills over the Cascades into eastern Washington and north Idaho. Wind through the night will keep overnight lows relatively mild Friday morning (mid 40s to low 50s). However, afternoon highs will be above 10 degrees cooler Friday than Thursday with upper 60s in north Idaho and low to mid 70s across central and eastern Washington. Scattered showers will be enhanced by the rising terrain of the mountains of north Idaho and northeast Washington. Saturday through Tuesday: The ensembles are struggling to handle an increasingly fast west to east flow across the Pacific Friday into early next week. Some of the ensembles deepen a chilly trough more than the other ensembles. The NBM temperature output is a "middle of the road" forecast over the weekend into early next week with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. In general, guidance suggests near or below average temperatures early next week with scattered showers. However, we may see some significant changes to the forecast depending on how the upper trough develops this weekend. A few of the ensembles have a day or two early next week under an upper trough with daytime temperatures as chilly as the 50s with showers. And other ensembles amplify a ridge along the coast with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. /GKoch && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote VFR conditions over the Inland Northwest. There will be passing high level cirrus clouds with fair weather cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue to support breezy winds through the Cascade gaps this afternoon and evening. Expect wind gusts to between 20-25 kts at KEAT this evening after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 75 47 77 51 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 72 47 74 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 69 47 72 50 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 77 52 81 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 76 45 79 47 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 71 46 72 49 74 48 / 0 0 10 10 10 20 Kellogg 67 50 71 52 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 80 49 85 52 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 78 53 81 56 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 81 50 83 51 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$