FXUS66 KMTR 141540 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 840 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1217 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024 Relatively quiet pattern persists through the forecast period with morning marine stratus and clear skies elsewhere. Inland temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 839 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Satellite shows low clouds along the coast as well as in the valleys this morning. The marine layer currently remains deep (1,600-2,000 feet) this morning near Ft. Ord and some drizzle has been reported near the coast. Clouds should start to clear late morning, when diurnal heating starts to warm the surface. Comparing the last 24 hours, the temperatures appears to be relatively the same as yesterday morning. With no drastic pattern changes today, expect similar max temperatures today with low to mid 60s along the coast, and upper 70s to low 80s inland. No changes to the forecast, as conditions remain on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1217 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Low pressure aloft will migrate from SoCal into the Desert Southwest as an expansive high pressure ridge encompasses much of the northeast Pacific. Our area will remain on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge with minimal changes to our sensible weather. A relatively deep marine layer around 1.5-2 kft was evident via area profilers early this morning, with low stratus clouds spilling inland across most of the area. Expect the top of the marine layer inversion to remain relatively steady this morning before compressing slightly as high pressure gains a bit more influence. However despite these modulations it's mostly a rinse and repeat forecast. Cloudy skies for the coast and marine influenced valleys overnight with a gradual clearing towards the beaches during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast and bays to the upper 70s and 80s for the warmest inland locations. As mentioned in the previous discussion some of the model temperature guidance seems a touch too warm when compared to observations over the past few days, so followed the previous forecast philosophy of trending slightly cooler for readings in areas which are likely to see a stronger marine influence. Otherwise not much else to add with overnight lows remaining seasonal in the upper 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1217 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 The upper level ridge will gain slight prominence through midweek, however we will remain along its periphery with a minimal increase in temperatures inland. Readings will range from the 60s along the coast to the upper 80s for the warmest inland valleys. A few hot spots may crack the 90 degree mark. Lows will be mostly in the 50s. The daily ebb and flow of coastal clouds will continue, with coverage spreading inland each night with a gradual retreat towards the coast by afternoon. The upper level pattern may transition more towards troughing by early next week but dry weather still looks to be the most probable forecast outcome. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Currently seeing a mix of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. The 2,000 feet deep marine layer has allowed for stratus to penetrate further inland and impact all terminals. Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by this afternoon. A more compressed marine layer will return tonight with LIFR-IFR conditions expected at the favored locations of MRY, OAK, SFO, SNS, and STS. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy westerly flow. VFR to prevail by late-morning. Winds will remain onshore and breezy through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected this afternoon. The terminal will likely see a ceiling overnight somewhere in the realm of low-end MVFR-high-end IFR. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS as the stratus has temporarily eroded. VFR to prevail by this afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. MRY will quickly deteriorate to IFR again tonight with SNS following suit a few hours later. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 423 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will dominate and dictate conditions over the coastal waters this week. Said surface high pressure will build and move east today, allowing for strong northerly breezes over the northernmost outer waters where the pressure gradient is tightest with gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes elsewhere. A brief retrograde to the west will allow for light to gentle breezes to prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Significant wave heights of 10-14 feet will begin an abating trend tonight. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...SO SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea