ACUS11 KWNS 131334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131333
TXZ000-131530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 131333Z - 131530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and damaging winds should
continue to increase this morning. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...The 12Z sounding from DRT shows rich low-level moisture
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, with resulting MUCAPE
approaching 4000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will
easily support supercell structures, and multiple thunderstorms have
already developed near Eagle Pass TX with a weak mid-level
perturbation ejecting from northern Mexico across TX. Current
expectations are for this ongoing activity to gradually spread
eastward across south-central TX this morning, while posing a threat
for very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) with any
sustained supercells. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may
also occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with filtered
daytime heating. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be
needed to address the increasing threat for very large hail this
morning.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29300086 29780014 29999847 29919717 29199689 28559715
            28289844 28210009 28390044 28840081 29300086