FXUS01 KWBC 080758
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 12Z Wed May 08 2024 - 12Z Fri May 10 2024

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Wednesday and over parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies
on Wednesday...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will
move eastward off the Northeast Coast overnight Wednesday. In
addition, a wave of low pressure over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains will move eastward to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday, and then the northern half of the boundary will move off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning. Furthermore, a part of
the boundary lingers over parts of the Southeast and Central Gulf
Coast also on Friday.

As the wave advances to the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday, it will bring showers and severe thunderstorms, mainly
over parts of southern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee. The SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle Mississippi Valley through
Thursday morning.  The potential hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat
of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an
additional threat of hail two inches or greater and severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over north-central Tennessee and northwestern Kentucky. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Thursday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Northeast, Northern Plains, and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and westward to the Southern Plains.
The threat of severe thunderstorms will be the highest over parts
of eastern Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains from Thursday through Friday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover,
there will be an increased threat of two inches of hail over
eastern Texas.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and
central Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning.
 The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Moreover, moderate to heavy rain
will also develop over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast, with a secondary max over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will
produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies from Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday,
the system will produce heavy snow over parts of the Northern
Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$