FXUS63 KBIS 071752 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1252 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers are expected across western and northern North Dakota today, with isolated to scattered showers south central into the James River Valley. - A northward moving west to east orientated line of thunderstorms may develop this afternoon north of I94. Severe weather is not expected at this time. - Strong westerly winds are expected along and south of Highway 12 in far southwest North Dakota from mid morning to early evening today. - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Rain continues over the northern third or so of the state, with showers over much of the southern two thirds. There are indications of a line of showers developing, as mentioned in the previous update, that may turn into thunderstorms within the next couple hours. These are generally located on a west to east line from Beulah to Carrington, then dipping southeast through Valley City and just north of Wahpeton. This line will lift north through the afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 951 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Rain continues over much of the northern half of the state, with rain showers in the southwest. By this afternoon, guidance suggests that a west to east orientated line of thunderstorms may develop. These would most likely develop north of I94 and lift to the north through the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, although a strong storm or two is not out of the question. UPDATE Issued at 707 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 At 700 AM CDT, the center of the surface was located over western parts of the Standing Rock Reservation. Patchy fog has developed to the north and west of the low in southwest North Dakota where an inverted trough is maintaining lighter winds. The fog should lift by mid morning as low clouds fill back in and winds increase. Otherwise, the forecast for today remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A stacked low pressure system with MSLP down to 983 mb is spinning over northwest South Dakota early this morning. The mid/upper trough that the low resides in exhibits negative tilt, placing the warm/ moist conveyer belt with a continuous .stream of cyclonic vorticity advection from southern Minnesota curling toward southeast Saskatchewan, the deformation zone with strong upper level divergence over eastern Montana, and a dry slot from southeast and central South Dakota into south central and southwest North Dakota. The low is forecast to slowly drift northeastward into south central North Dakota throughout the day while becoming elongated in a west to east fashion. High- resolution and global ensembles are well- aligned with high chances for rain across northern and western North Dakota this morning and afternoon, with more isolated to scattered shower activity expected south central to southeast. A strong band of low level westerly winds wrapping around the low will clip the far southwest corner of the state today, which is expected to bring advisory criteria winds and gusts to areas along and south of Highway 12. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Bowman and Adams Counties from mid morning to early evening. High temperatures today are mostly expected to be in the 50s, but will likely be limited to the mid to upper 40s in the southwest. The stacked low is forecast to gradually weaken and drift southward later tonight through Wednesday. High chances for lighter rain remain in the forecast for southwest North Dakota through Wednesday afternoon, where some guidance maintains a pocket of enhanced Q- vector convergence. The rest of the state will still see low to medium chances for rain through Wednesday with the continued presence of mid level cyclonic vorticity. There could be some peeks of sun on Wednesday, but it will likely be another mostly cloudy day with slightly warmer high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The NBM shows low chances for rain departing all but southwest North Dakota by Thursday morning as a northeast-pointing upper ridge brings anticyclonic flow over the region. This should result in greater sunshine and temperatures finally warming into the mid and upper 60s. A clipper-like system is then forecast to dig into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes region on Friday. Most of the forcing will lie east of our forecast area, but central North Dakota could see isolated to scattered afternoon showers under the cyclonic northwest flow. Despite the passage of the cold front attendant to the clipper, highs are still expected to reach the mid to upper 60s again on Friday. But as is the case with clippers, a breezy, if not windy day can be expected. Mean ensemble height fields suggest a northwest flow pattern over the Northern Plains this weekend into early next week, with a potential for one or two shortwave passages. Despite this, there is medium to high confidence in temperatures rising above normal for most areas over this time period, with upper 60s to mid 70s for highs and 40s for lows. The NBM maintains a dry forecast for the weekend, with only low chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Rain is occurring over the northern third of western through central North Dakota, with isolated to scattered showers over much of the southern two thirds. A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon mainly along and north of Highway 200. MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail at most terminals through the period. However, there will be VFR ceilings at times in the south central and especially southeast. Very windy westerly winds are expected to continue in the far southwest through the day today. Otherwise, expect breezy northeasterly winds across northern North Dakota through much of the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043-044. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Telken