FXUS63 KFGF 032346
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 and the
  southern portion of Grant, Ottertail, Wadena this evening.

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives
  Monday/Tuesday, with isolated stronger storms possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Spotty showers continue to progress eastward in the north, with
the showers brought on by Frontogenesis in the south starting
to push SE out of the area. Last check, we had received 0.07" at
the office at 4:45PM. So even though these showers sound loud,
not much actual QPF with them. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Added some chance POPs through 00z to account for these diurnal
showers north of HWY 200 this afternoon. Given that these are
fueled by the sun warming the ground, they will quickly fall
apart after sunset. Forecast remains on track otherwise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A quick shortwave will move across the international border to
give our northern counties the chance for some brief showers but
amounts look to be around 0.20 inches or less. This evening a
band of 850mb fgen will bring shower chances across the far
southern valley into west central Minnesota rain; amounts look
to be under 0.50 inches. If any thunderstorm do develop as
models hint at the availability of some instability the greatest
threat looks to be lighting and some pea size hail at the most
tonight.

Sunday, A temporary ridge sets up to give us a break in this wet
pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the
60's with some areas reaching 70. However, Monday, a negatively
tilted trough will increase the chances for showers and gusty
winds starting in the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient
ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb
over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts
increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong
low level flow will also usher in strong moisture return from
stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. Monday
evening through Tuesday morning looks to be our first chance of
severe thunderstorms for our area. The NBM highlights the I-94
corridor and south with 80-90% probs for CWASP values of 50 or
greater, but only 10% of values greater than 65%. Looking at
the 25/75 percentiles QPF values float between 0.10 and 1 inch
for the CWA. With the chance for severe thunderstorms QPF values
may reach 1 to 2 inches underneath the thunderstorms.

Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt
between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low
to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC
outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay
below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more
chances for rain to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Ceilings will lower slowly to IFR at northern TAF sites (DVL,
TVF, GFK), with other sites staying in higher flight categories
(FAR doesn't look to be affected by the ceiling drops at all the
other sites). Winds will shift to the NW over the day Saturday,
with main concerns for TAF sites being the aforementioned
ceilings and associated SHRA. Some TAF sites may early drop into
LIFR briefly in the morning, but they will bounce back up into
IFR. Confidence was lower on the extent of this, so kept it out
of the TAFs for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...AH