FXUS65 KTFX 090022 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 522 PM MST Thu Feb 8 2024 ...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED... .SYNOPSIS... Snow returns to the area overnight tonight as a weak cold front pushes through the area. After a quick coating of snow in the morning, clouds will linger through the day before clearing out for the weekend. Expect tranquil weather over the weekend as upper level high pressure moves overhead. && .DISCUSSION... Snowfall from yesterday's wintry weather system has mostly wound down across the area this afternoon save for a few lingering and largely scattered snow showers. While clouds have lingered in the wake of this system, we have been getting enough sunlight to warm up the roads to allow them to thaw out a bit this afternoon. With this in mind, be careful if you will be traveling around or after sunset, as roads will quickly become icy as any melted snow and ice refreezes. While clouds have thinned out a bit through the day today, clouds will begin to thicken again overnight tonight as our next system approaches overnight. A weak shortwave currently over Central Idaho will slowly migrate eastward overnight tonight as a weak jet streak moves in from the northwest. As these two features merge, a weak cold front will slide in from the north overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, which will bring a round of mostly light snow as this trio of systems pushes through. Most of the area can expect a coating to 2 inches of snow with this system, though some of the mountains of Madison and Gallatin County will see a bit more thanks to their proximity to the upper level shortwave. I did consider a Winter Weather Advisory for some of the more populated areas for tomorrow morning due to the timing of the snow (during the morning commute), but I decided to forgo issuing one as the impact to the commute should be relatively minimal given the light snowfall amounts. Beyond this weak system tomorrow, the weekend should be rather quiet and slightly warmer as an upper level ridge builds into the area. With temperatures a few degrees above freezing with increasing sunshine, we will likely see roads melt out quite efficiently as the snowpack settles a little bit. Beyond the weekend, uncertainty increases very quickly, though the general sense is that next week will be a bit on the unsettled side with a few chances for some additional precipitation, albeit generally on the light side. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 522 PM MST Thu Feb 8 2024 (09/00Z TAF Period) Aside from some ongoing snow shower activity along the Continental Divide, there will be somewhat of a lull in snow activity before another shortwave and attendant cold front approaches from the northwest later tonight into Friday and brings another round of light snow and associated degraded flight categories. The current VFR and some MVFR conditions being observed will trend more toward MVFR/IFR either due to patchy fog for the first part of the period or due to snow later tonight and Friday. Surface winds will generally be light, but will shift to a north/northwesterly direction over central/North-central locations between 09/06 and 09/15Z. - RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 33 19 29 11 / 40 30 80 20 CTB 31 18 27 4 / 10 50 40 0 HLN 35 22 31 13 / 20 20 50 10 BZN 33 19 31 12 / 20 50 60 50 WYS 29 12 26 3 / 70 60 80 50 DLN 34 21 31 13 / 10 40 60 20 HVR 31 15 29 6 / 70 20 40 10 LWT 30 16 28 11 / 60 30 60 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Friday for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls