FXUS66 KSGX 091053 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 253 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered light showers will continue from the coast to the mountains today, decreasing tonight and ending by early Saturday. Then dry with a slow warming trend with high temperatures warming to near average for the middle of next week. The flow on Saturday will turn briefly offshore with gusty north winds for early Saturday morning into early Saturday evening with the stronger gusts to 35 to 45 mph along and below the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. A wetter pattern may return some time around the weekend of February 17th/18th. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... A weak low pressure system from the north is moving through southern California early this morning. Moist cyclonic flow continues with scattered light showers continuing to spread inland from the coast waters to the mountains. The showers will decrease tonight with most showers ending by Saturday morning. Through tonight, additional rainfall for Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties could range from a few hundredths of an inch or less near the coast to one-tenth to locally one-quarter inch in the mountains. For San Diego and western Riverside Counties, additional rainfall could range from one-tenth to locally one-quarter inch near the coast to one-quarter to one- half inch in the mountains. The snow level will be around 4000 feet with a few inches of additional snowfall mostly above 4500 feet. There will be a warming trend through the weekend, but with high temperatures on Sunday still 5 to 10 degrees below average for inland areas. There could be some patchy frost Saturday night for colder wind-sheltered portions of the inland valleys and lower deserts. The flow on Saturday will turn briefly offshore with gusty north winds for early Saturday morning into early Saturday evening with the stronger gusts to 35 to 45 mph along and below the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Dry weather with a slow warming trend with high temperatures warming to near average. A wetter pattern may return some time around the weekend of February 17th/18th. The model cluster with the earliest arrival for precipitation would be on Friday the 16th. That cluster is heavily weighted toward ensemble members of the GFS. It includes 83 percent of GFS ensemble members, 22 percent of ECMWF ensemble members, and only 5 percent of Canadian ensemble members. NBM chances for measurable precipitation on that Friday are mostly 20 percent or less with chances increasing to around 40 percent on Saturday and 60 percent on Sunday. && .AVIATION... 091045Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN020-040 layered to 10kft with SHRA through 22Z. Lower CIGS 010-015 in the heavier showers. Aft 22Z...SCT-BKN020-050 with isolated showers through 12Z Saturday. Mountains...Multiple cloud layers to 10kft and SHRA/SHSN obscuring the mtns today and tonight. West winds 20-30 mph. Deserts...SCT-BKN050-100 today and tonight. && .MARINE... Scattered showers today with west to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Stronger northwest winds gusting to 25 kt over the Outer Waters tonight, shifting northeast Saturday morning. Lighter winds Sunday and Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...Moede