FXUS66 KSEW 091742
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
941 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Moist northwest flow will continue to stream moisture
into portions of western Washington this morning as high pressure
slowly amplifies inland. Conditions will dry out this afternoon and
continue into early Saturday as the ridge axis passes overhead. A
warm frontal passage on Sunday will usher in more widespread
precipitation before unsettled conditions return into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Current satellite showing a
tale of two cities, to refer to the classic story, with a fair
amount of clouds lingering over the western half of the CWA while
the eastern half, while certainly not clear per se, showing more
breaks in the clouds. Radar paints a similar picture with a weak
swath of echoes along the coast and midway through the Olympic
Peninsula while hardly any echoes are present east of the Sound,
save for the remnants of an early morning convergence zone over
northern King county. It is worth noting that in spite of the echoes
present over the aforementioned western portions of the CWA, obs not
showing much of actual precip making it to the ground...so at best,
maybe some light drizzle or mist could be possible but otherwise no
significant precip is expected.

Upper level ridging will be the rule for much of the short term as
conditions dry out today thanks to this feature starting to make its
way into the area. These dry conditions are expected to persist
throughout the majority of Saturday before the next frontal system
starts to work into WA late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
This system will likely be the best chance the area will see for
widespread measurable precip in the near term certainly but also
potentially for the entire forecast period. Lowland locations will
not see a whole lot, generally around a tenth of an inch or less,
while higher elevations and locations along the coast leaning more
toward the 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch range. Likely PoPs expected for
much of the CWA through the bulk of the day Sunday before easing
back down to Slight Chance to Chance Sunday night.

Temps today will be similar to those of yesterday and of the recent
past, mainly in the mid to upper 40s, however there will be a nudge
upward in temps Saturday thanks to the ridge and the incoming warm
front will keep them at those levels for Sunday. Highs both days
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Inherited forecast looks good. No need for any morning updates.

18

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...From Previous
Discussion...Models continue to show a wide range of possible
solutions for Monday and beyond, favoring active and wet weather to
continue. Ensembles favor a progressive pattern with precipitation
each day that will usher in light lowland rain and light mountain
snow. Temperatures will stay near normal with a potential warm-up
towards the end of next week.

Lindeman

&&

.AVIATION...An upper trough will slide eastward this morning with
weak ridging building offshore for more northwesterly flow aloft.
Light rain continues early this morning for portions of western
Washington, especially within a convergence zone along the central
Sound. Drier conditions expected heading into the afternoon after
the PSCZ dissipates. Cigs are a mixed bag this morning - though more
widespread MVFR for much of the area. IFR to LIFR cigs have been
reported in fog and rain. Cigs will gradually improve towards BKN
VFR this afternoon with continued MVFR expected along the coast.
Another round of lower cigs and areas of fog possible later Friday
night into early Saturday. Light winds through today.

KSEA...Cigs IFR this morning as a CZ sinks southward across the
central Sound. Expect some light rain as this feature moves into the
terminal. Winds remain light and could become variable as the the CZ
moves overhead. Expect improvement towards BKN VFR by the afternoon.
14

&&

.MARINE...Light winds this morning increasing more southeast for the
Coastal Waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca later today. South to
southeast winds will increase on Saturday ahead of the next frontal
system. Winds will increase further Saturday night into Sunday for
Small Craft Advisory winds likely for the Coastal Waters as well as
portions of the interior waters with the front. Westerly winds will
increase for the Coastal Waters Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
following the front. Winds are expected to taper Monday.

Seas of 5 to 7 feet through Saturday will then build to 10 to 13
feet for the Coastal Waters Saturday night through Sunday night.
Seas will then subside below 10 feet early next week. JD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected through the next seven
days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$