FXUS66 KLOX 092157 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 157 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...09/144 PM. Dry conditions but continued below normal temperatures are expected through at least the middle of next week. Locally breezy Santa Ana winds are expected through Monday. The next chance of rain is later next week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...09/143 PM. Still lots of low level moisture around today left over from several days of rain. Even had a few light showers earlier this morning in central and southern LA County. While a little spritz of rain can't be ruled out this afternoon there, the transition to northerly flow tonight and a low grade Santa Ana over the weekend should dry things out fairly quickly, putting an end to any lingering shower activity. However, increasing northerly flow over the northern mountains from the Grapevine west will continue to provide a favorable environment for low clouds and fog and possibly some drizzle or light rain/snow showers there tonight before the Santa Anas kick in Saturday and Sunday. Not expecting any accumulations but a light dusting is possible above 3000 feet. For the winds tonight into Saturday, models keep them right at the low end of advisory level for the mountains, including the Santa Ynez Range in southern Santa Barbara County. Some of those winds will push down into the LA valleys, through the Sepulveda Pass and into West LA but most of the high res ensembles indicate speeds peaking in the 30-35 mph range so will hold off with any advisories there. As the winds transition from north to northeast Saturday morning, chances for advisory level winds in the LA Mountains increase, especially over the higher peaks. Very low end advisory level Santa Anas are possible in the western Santa Monicas, the hills in the western and northern SFV, and in eastern Simi Valley. Similar scenario for Saturday night into Sunday morning, then weaker though still present offshore flow Monday. The combination of the drying/warming northeast winds and some weak ridging aloft will push temps a few degrees warmer for most areas this weekend into early next week, but still 3-5 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...09/155 PM. Dry weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through at least Wednesday as ridging over California pushes any incoming storms well to the north. However, the dry spell is likely to come to an end later next week or into the weekend as virtually all the ensemble solutions show rain returning. There is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to strength and timing, though the percentage of heavier rain solutions took a fairly large jump with the 12z run today. && .AVIATION...09/1718Z. At 1645Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX. Overall, high confidence in most 18Z TAFs as VFR conditions for the sites through the period. The only exception is KPRB where there is moderate confidence, at best, for the development of VLIFR conditions after 13Z. KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected. There is moderate confidence in northerly winds around 8 knots 11Z-17Z. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. && .MARINE...09/917 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday morning, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds continuing. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northwesterly winds today through Saturday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours then a 30-40% chance Sunday afternoon/evening. For Monday and Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the waters from Point Mugu southward, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica tonight/Saturday morning and Saturday night/Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 349-351-352-377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox