FXUS66 KLOX 091119 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 319 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...09/220 AM. It will be sunny and dry today with well below normal temperatures. Dry conditions but continued below normal temperatures are expected through at least the middle of next week. Increasing clouds and an increasing chance of rain next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/259 AM. Fairly benign weather on tap for the next three days. A ridge will move over the area today and then remain atop of the area both Saturday and Sunday. Hgts will rise through the period from 556 dam this morning to 570 dam by Sunday. Weak gradients this morning has allowed some low clouds to form across the Central Coast, the LA county coast as well as portions of the vlys, but otherwise skies today will be mostly sunny. Offshore flow will develop tonight and last in some form through Sunday. This offshore flow will be enough to keep the low clouds away both days. Winds will be the only weather issue. This evening decent northerly upper level support sets up as the east end of the ridge moves into the state. This combined with the offshore push from the north will bring advisory level gusts the Nrn VTA mtns and the I-5 corridor as well as most of the SBA south coast. Advisory level gusts are possible (40 percent chc) for the western AV foothills and the Santa Clarita Vly. A weak Santa Ana develops on Sunday morning as the W/E gradients turn more offshore but at this time the gusts look to be under advisory criteria. There will be a few degrees of warming each day but with highs today fcst to only reach the upper 50s and lower 60s max temps will remain blo normal all three days. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/234 AM. Both the EC and GFS as well as their respective ensembles agree that weak ridging will be in control of the weather next week. Gradients stay pretty close to neutral throughout the period. Skies may be partly cloudy at times as some high clouds drift through the ridge. Cannot totally rule out some coastal low clouds but there is not enough of a signal to put them in the fcst. There will be a slow rise in temps each day for most of the area and by next Wed or Thu most location's afternoon's highs will be a little warmer than normal. Beyond that, most of the ensemble solutions are indicating a return to wet weather by next weekend or early the following week. && .AVIATION...09/1119Z. Around 10Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. Moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of sub-VFR conditions at all terminals through 16Z, and again after 08Z Saturday. KLAX...There is a 50 percent chance of MVFR conditions through 16Z. Any easterly winds will likely remain below 7 knots, but there is a 30 percent chance of easterly winds between 7 and 9 knots through 16Z. KBUR...There is a 50 percent chance of MVFR conditions through 16Z. No significant wind issues are expected. && .MARINE...09/305 AM. Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence in the forecast for winds relative to seas. For waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is a 50-70 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas continuing through Saturday morning, strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. By Saturday afternoon and night, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds, strongest around Point Conception. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels early next week. Inside the southern California bight, there is a 50-70 percent chance of SCA level winds through late tonight. Gusty west to northwest winds will likely affect the western and central portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through late tonight or early Saturday morning, then gusty northeast winds will likely develop nearshore from Rincon Point to Pacific Palisades. SCA headlines may be needed for gusty northeast winds. Then, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels early next week. && .BEACHES...08/857 PM. The northwest to west swell will lower but remain elevated through Saturday, resulting in high surf conditions through Friday. High surf is likely for the Central Coast (12-16 feet) and Ventura Coast (7-10 feet) through Friday, and across west facing beaches of Los Angeles County (5-8 feet) through Friday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 349-351-352-377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Hall MARINE...Hall BEACHES...RAT/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox