FXUS66 KLOX 091100 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 300 AM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...09/220 AM. It will be sunny and dry today with well below normal temperatures. Dry conditions but continued below normal temperatures are expected through at least the middle of next week. Increasing clouds and an increasing chance of rain next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/259 AM. Fairly benign weather on tap for the next three days. A ridge will move over the area today and then remain atop of the area both Saturday and Sunday. Hgts will rise through the period from 556 dam this morning to 570 dam by Sunday. Weak gradients this morning has allowed some low clouds to form across the Central Coast, the LA county coast as well as portions of the vlys, but otherwise skies today will be mostly sunny. Offshore flow will develop tonight and last in some form through Sunday. This offshore flow will be enough to keep the low clouds away both days. Winds will be the only weather issue. This evening decent northerly upper level support sets up as the east end of the ridge moves into the state. This combined with the offshore push from the north will bring advisory level gusts the Nrn VTA mtns and the I-5 corridor as well as most of the SBA south coast. Advisory level gusts are possible (40 percent chc) for the western AV foothills and the Santa Clarita Vly. A weak Santa Ana develops on Sunday morning as the W/E gradients turn more offshore but at this time the gusts look to be under advisory criteria. There will be a few degrees of warming each day but with highs today fcst to only reach the upper 50s and lower 60s max temps will remain blo normal all three days. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/234 AM. Both the EC and GFS as well as their respective ensembles agree that weak ridging will be in control of the weather next week. Gradients stay pretty close to neutral throughout the period. Skies may be partly cloudy at times as some high clouds drift through the ridge. Cannot totally rule out some coastal low clouds but there is not enough of a signal to put them in the fcst. There will be a slow rise in temps each day for most of the area and by next Wed or Thu most location's afternoon's highs will be a little warmer than normal. Beyond that, most of the ensemble solutions are indicating a return to wet weather by next weekend or early the following week. && .AVIATION...09/1100Z. At 2335Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor a sfc based inversion. Pretty good confidence in almost all TAFs. There is a 20% chance of a BKN008 deck for any coastal and valley site 10Z-17Z. For KPRB, there is a 40 percent chance of VFR conds through the period. KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance BKN008 conds 10Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance BKN008 conds 10Z-17Z. && .MARINE...08/858 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday morning, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Saturday afternoon/evening, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds, especially across western sections. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA elsewhere. For Saturday night through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/857 PM. The northwest to west swell will lower but remain elevated through Saturday, resulting in high surf conditions through Friday. High surf is likely for the Central Coast (12-16 feet) and Ventura Coast (7-10 feet) through Friday, and across west facing beaches of Los Angeles County (5-8 feet) through Friday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 349-351-352-377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT/KL BEACHES...RAT/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox