FXUS62 KILM 090748 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 248 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving offshore brings a warming trend through Saturday. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday and Monday as a front stalls near the area. A second, stronger front pushing through on Monday night will usher in dry and seasonable weather for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Region will remain under the influence of surface high through tonight with the 500mb pattern becoming more zonal as 5h ridge moves off the coast. Return flow on the west side of the surface high sets up warm advection today and tonight. Initially advection is on the weak side, but gradually strengthens later today and tonight. Clouds will continue to thicken and gradually lower during the day as moist layer drops from around 500mb this morning to 700mb this evening. Layer below 700mb remains very dry and stable, with forecast soundings depicting a healthy inversion in place through the end of the near term. Lack of forcing and the very dry low levels will keep the region rain free despite the heavy cloud cover. Increasing warm advection will push highs close to 10 degrees above climo away from the immediate coast. Clouds and warm advection will keep lows around 15 degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm with partly-mostly cloudy skies Saturday with continued WAA associated with SW flow from the Gulf around offshore ridge to the southeast. Mid-level dry air and no lifting mechanism (outside of wintertime diurnal heating) will keep area rain free through most of Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the low 70s. A front drops into the Carolinas early Sunday, stalling near or north of the CWA into Monday. Rain chances increase from the northwest early Sunday as air column becomes almost completely saturated by the afternoon. Rain will be light during the day Sunday and Sunday evening as SW-NE flow runs parallel to the front with some upper level impulses helping provide some lift. POPs and rainfall amounts begin to increase Sunday night as a low pressure system approaches the MS valley and isentropic lift increases ahead of it, combining with continued PVA aloft. Low temps Saturday and Sunday nights will near climo highs in the upper 50s, with highs Sunday around 70F tempered by clouds and light rain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aforementioned surface low moves northeast into the Mid- Atlantic late Monday/Monday night, pushing a cold front across the area Monday night, as a 500mb shortwave lifts across the Carolinas Monday night. Have categorical pops in the forecast for during the day Monday, with QPF around 0.5-0.75" as cold front approaches. Cold front offshore early Tuesday, with high pressure, dry and seasonable weather behind it for Tuesday night through Thursday. Lingering elevated winds aloft Tuesday morning will translate to breezy conditions into Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR for the next 24 hours. Low potential for MVFR fog along the NC coast 09Z-12Z however, increasing cloud cover aloft and lingering low level dry air will work to disrupt any fog that tries to develop. Southerly winds develop mid morning with speeds under 10kt through the day as high pressure shifts offshore. Ceilings gradually lower later today and tonight but bases will remain above 10k ft. Extended Outlook...VFR expected through Saturday. MVFR/IFR possible from Saturday night through Monday night. VFR returns ;ate Tuesday or Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Elongated surface high just east of the waters this morning will gradually drift farther east. Gradient across the waters will remain ill-defined with southerly winds under 10 kt today increasing to around 10 kt late tonight. Seas 2-3 ft with 3 ft seas expanding a little farther west late tonight across NC zones. An easterly swell around 10 seconds remains dominant but a southerly wind wave will start to set up overnight. Saturday through Tuesday...Steady southwest flow around offshore ridge Saturday into Sunday will weaken briefly late Sunday as a front stalls across the Carolinas. Seas linger around 2-4 ft Saturday through early Monday, combination of SSW wind wave and long period E swell. Winds pick up again Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west, moving offshore Monday night/early Tuesday. Tightened pressure gradient around low pressure passing to the north Monday night into Tuesday will likely push winds and seas into SCA criteria. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ054- 056. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...III MARINE...III/VAO