FXUS66 KHNX 092046 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1246 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Potential for Dense Fog on Saturday morning with a 30 to 60 percent chance of 1/4 mile visibility or less from Merced to Fresno. 2. Warming Trend Sunday through Thursday. 3. High risk (60% chance or greater) of heavy rain and mountain snow and a moderate risk (40% chance or greater) of heavy winds Saturday 2/17 through Monday 2/19. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model ensembles have the trough that brought us the active weather the past few days to our east as it slides away from our area. A ridge will start to build in late tonight into tomorrow over the West Coast bringing drier conditions. This ridge will also bring stable conditions which would help with the potential of fog tonight into tomorrow morning. Latest dynamic ensembles show a 30 to 60 percent chance of fog with visibilities less than a quarter mile near the Highway 99 corridor from Merced to just north of Fresno. The model ensembles show by Monday that the ridge will be more of a rex block with a shortwave trough near the coast of Baja under the ridge. The ridge and the rex block will help bring temperatures up to about 3 to 6 degrees above average. Latest probabilities have a 10 percent chance or less of high temperatures of at least 70 degrees from Wednesday through Friday. This rex block setup will persist through late Friday. By late next Friday, a trough will start moving into our area. We will monitor this system as the CPC has issued a high risk (60 percent chance or more) of heavy rain and snow and a moderate risk (40 percent chance or more) of strong winds between the 16th and 22nd with the focus being on the 17th through 19th. && .AVIATION... MVFR and IFR conditions with spots of LIFR possible after 09Z tonight due to fog mainly north of Fresno. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 02/08/2024 14:16 EXPIRES: 02/09/2024 23:59 On Friday February 9 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford