FXUS63 KFGF 092322
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
522 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several chances for light snow this weekend into early next
  week. However, probabilities for an inch or more of snow are
  10 percent or less.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024

Northwest flow with several weak shortwaves, one digging through
MN and another along the Ontario/Manitoba border headed for Lake
of the Woods. There continues to be some flurries/light snow
showers in western MN, with visibility down to 1 to 2 miles in a
few spots, but not much impacts seen at this point. CAMs have
the flurries and light snow showers tapering off this evening,
leaving mostly cloudy skies and quiet conditions overnight with
lows in the teens and 20s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft continues
with another northern branch shortwave digging into western ND
tomorrow and into MN Saturday night. Several of the
deterministic models break out some QPF with the passage of this
wave, but amounts are pretty minimal and HREF mean has no
significant probabilities for anything measurable. Can't rule
out some snow showers or flurries, but think chances for
anything impactful are low. The same can be said for several
shortwaves coming through late Sunday and again Monday. There is
a little bit higher chances for one of these clippers to bring
something measurable, but probabilities for an inch or more of
snow are 10 percent or less. Temperatures for the weekend and
early next week will remain on the warmer side of average but
will not be as warm as we have seen lately.

Wednesday through Friday...There is a signal in some of the
models for a stronger northern branch shortwave digging down
into the region. There is good agreement in the ensembles in
cooler temperatures arriving, but a lot of spread in the box and
whisker plots as to exactly how cold. Will there be true Arctic
air or something more modified remains to be seen, but there
does seem to trend down to or below seasonal averages for the
end of the week. Precipitation wise, probabilities for an inch
or more of snow are still 10 percent or less, but can't rule out
some light QPF so will keep the low POPs that NBM gives us.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area this afternoon
and evening. Light snow continues intermittently at KBJI and
KTVF as low pressure moves off to the east. Although a few clear
spots are possible overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies with
ceilings falling into the lower end of MVFR. There is a low
chance for IFR CIGs at KBJI after 09Z. A slow wind shift begins
to take place Saturday, with northwest winds becoming
increasingly westerly by early afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch