FXUS66 KMTR 310435
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
935 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Temperatures return closer to normal today, then climb
   slightly above normal for Sunday into beginning of next week

 - Cooler than normal temperatures look to return by end of the
   upcoming work week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

Temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s
in northwest facing coastal areas while the interior warms into
the low- to-upper 70s. This is as low clouds are beginning to
dissipate regionwide. The warmest interior spots have a greater
than 60% probability of reaching 80 deg F, such as the southern
Salinas Valley and far interior East Bay (Byron and Brentwood to
name a few).

The greatest potential for stratus to return is around the
Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula tonight into
Sunday morning. This is as a short-wave ridge of high pressure
begins to approach from the eastern Pacific. This will result in
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon with upper 50s to
around 70 deg F near the coast and coastal adjacent valleys. The
most notable warming will occur across the interior with middle
70s to middle 80s expected under sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

The short-wave ridge will shift eastward slightly and be more
over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Monday. Thus, temperatures
will continue the warming trend, warming some 5 to 10 degrees
above seasonal averages. Still expecting a shallow marine layer to
remain in place with northwesterly winds at the coast, but if low
clouds do not develop in coastal areas Monday morning, expect
coastal areas to be a few degrees warmer. By Tuesday the marine
layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 ft allowing for
stratus to return into inland valleys Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Thus, current forecast temperatures may be a bit too warm
for Tuesday afternoon. We will continue to monitor the latest
trends.

Warming resumes on Wednesday and continues into Thursday with
mostly zonal flow across the region. Slight day-to-day
fluctuations are expected depending on the depth of the marine
layer and associated marine influences across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. By the upcoming weekend, the WPC 500mb Height-based
Cluster Analysis has increasing probabilities that a trough will
approach and move inland across the West Coast. This would bring
cooler conditions to the region, however rain would likely remain
well to the north of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

A mix of clear skies and coastal stratus tonight. HAF, MRY, SNS,
SFO, and OAK are the ones to watch, listed in order of decreasing
probabilities. Moderate onshore winds will decrease overnight
before returning Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...The terminal remains VFR, although a patch of
stratus is developing over the Peninsula. The strong onshore winds
are gradually decreasing, but held on longer than I thought they
would. The probability for ceilings Sunday morning is around 40%,
but the window is short enough to capture in a TEMPO group. The
afternoon will almost certainly be clear as the onshore winds
return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY just developed a ceiling out of
nowhere. I expected that to happen tonight, but not this early.
I'm not sure that this first cloud will survive the night, so I'm
keeping the first few hours of the TAF VFR for now.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 929 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

High end small craft advisories are in effect, with buoys
reporting occasional gusts to gale force. A fresh northerly
breeze will continue through Sunday. Seas will build in response
and become rough leading to hazardous conditions over the coastal
waters through Sunday and into Monday morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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