ACUS11 KWNS 262223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262223
MEZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...parts of northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262223Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may progress across the
international border by around 8 PM EDT, with continuing potential
for a few strong gusts before weakening further thereafter.

DISCUSSION...The most prominent thunderstorm activity, within a
pre-frontal convective band now advancing to the southeast of the
St. Lawrence Valley, appears to be propagating a bit slower and to
the right of the 50-60 kt deep-layer westerly ambient mean flow, but
still around 40 kt.  With this continuing motion, storms are on pace
to progress across the international border, coincident with a broad
area of lower pressure to the south of the primary surface cyclone,
between 23-00Z.  Latest mesoanalysis suggests that the modestly deep
mixed boundary layer ahead of activity may remain sufficiently
unstable to support convection capable of producing a few strong
surface gusts into portions of northern Maine, before storms weaken
further with diminishing severe weather potential thereafter.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   46337223 46647119 46907038 47116938 46486815 45816994
            45777058 46337223

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH