ACUS11 KWNS 262221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262220 TXZ000-262345- Mesoscale Discussion 0864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244... Valid 262220Z - 262345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of greater severe potential appears likely downstream of a developing cluster with embedded supercell structures, with a threat for all severe hazards. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts an evolving thunderstorm cluster to the south of Del Rio, Texas, as of 2200 UTC. Although hail estimates have since decreased to some extent, MRMS and other MESH estimates of hail size ranged from 2-3+ inches in diameter over the past hour, with stronger low-level rotation also previously noted (Vrot exceeded 35-40 kts) with an embedded supercell structure. The environment downstream of this cluster remains supportive of all severe hazards, with effective layer STP and SHIP values of 2-3 analyzed via latest objective analysis and 150 m2/s2 0-500 SRH sampled by the DFX VAD profile. Latest high-res guidance suggests that this cluster will propagate east-southeastward into south-central Texas over the next couple of hours, yielding a corridor of greater severe potential. Recent WoFS/HRRR runs in particular suggest that severe to significant severe gusts will be the primary hazard. While the cluster storm mode may somewhat limit the magnitude of the tornado/hail threat, large to very large hail and a tornado or two will still remain possible with any embedded supercell structures. Downstream of this cluster, a discrete supercell that has recently produced large hail and measured severe gusts remains ongoing, with some signs of additional discrete development to its south (towering Cu and weak reflectivity echoes noted in McMullen County). Will monitor for a downstream watch pending this development or the eventual southeastward propagation of the aforementioned cluster. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29440083 29470051 29429966 29439957 29319882 29039821 28679795 28399797 28229807 28119833 28119886 28199932 28309968 28480038 28790100 29090107 29320094 29440083 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN