ACUS11 KWNS 142153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142152 TXZ000-NMZ000-142315- Mesoscale Discussion 0720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast New Mexico into the Texas Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142152Z - 142315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the remainder of this afternoon into evening. The areal coverage of any severe weather is expected to be too limited to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and mosaic radar data indicate a gradual uptick in moist convection across the Trans-Pecos region of southwest TX. Despite the presence of considerable mid/high-level cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the 90s with RAP-derived forecast soundings indicating a 3-4-km deep, well-mixed boundary layer. A moist plume atop of the boundary-layer is yielding MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg in the area of active convection, with objective analysis suggesting values as high as 1000 J/kg farther to the east across the Permian Basin. Current water vapor imagery suggests slight ridging aloft across the discussion area, indicative of negligible forcing for ascent. As such, overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain somewhat limited into this evening. Nonetheless, a subset of the current convection is expected to intensify while spreading into portions of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau region where comparatively greater instability resides. The primary hazard will be locally strong to severe wind gusts, owing to the strong evaporational-cooling potential within the sub-cloud layer. ..Mead/Smith.. 05/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30760384 31440387 32300350 32730289 32700235 32270146 31840125 31120122 30560128 30250152 30130205 30110259 30160285 30400335 30760384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH