ACUS11 KWNS 270551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270550
MOZ000-270645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...East central and southeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 270550Z - 270645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A storm cluster with embedded supercells will approach
areas of Missouri immediately east of the current watch.  The need
for a downstream watch is uncertain in the short term.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with embedded supercell structures
continues to move eastward across south central MO.  These storms
are now approaching the east edge of WW #153, which coincides with
the east edge of the buoyancy gradient.  There will be a tendency
for some eastward expansion of the warm sector in response to warm
advection with 40 kt south-southwesterly low-level flow.  However,
it is unclear if destabilization will keep pace with the lead
storms, or if those storms will move east a bit too fast and weaken.
 East central and southeast MO will continue to be monitored, and a
small/new watch may be needed, pending short-term trends.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38059051 37579038 37259051 37029076 37149124 37949182
            38499201 38609175 38679117 38389074 38059051

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN