ACUS11 KWNS 251801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251801
NEZ000-KSZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and far northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251801Z - 252000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move east-northeastward across southern and southeastern NE this
afternoon. Hail up to the size of 1" may accompany the strongest
updrafts.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this afternoon shows an increase in
moist convection developing along and ahead of a cold front
extending north-northeast to south-southwest across portions of
central and southern NE. Convergence along this boundary, in
addition to a subtle mid-level shortwave perturbation, are resulting
in enhanced lift across this region. Although surface based
instability is limited, an elevated warm layer and cold temperatures
above it in the mid to upper levels are contributing to MUCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg. Effective deep layer shear through this
afternoon near 30-40 kt will continue to support some organization
within the cluster of thunderstorms.

With some additional, slow destabilization expected throughout the
afternoon a few of the more robust updrafts will be capable of
producing hail up to 1". However, the overall severe threat should
remain low/isolated given the aforementioned environment and
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. A watch is not anticipated at
this time.

..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40319893 40849878 41299859 41629729 41449628 40479620
            40079626 39769671 39529732 39499795 39509835 39999859
            40319893

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN