ACUS11 KWNS 112232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112232 KSZ000-120000- Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112232Z - 120000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado may spread eastward. The longevity of the threat is uncertain. DISCUSSION...An HP supercell has recently developed to the west-northwest of Wichita, within a region of ascent that may have been related to a minor MCV that earlier moved out of the southern High Plains. The KICT VWP depicts gradually enlarging low-level hodographs, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. Downstream MLCINH is minimal, which may help this supercell cluster to persist into early evening, though in the absence of stronger synoptic-scale ascent, storm-scale dynamics and the influence of cell mergers may determine the longevity of this cluster and the attendant severe threat. While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (as observed in the 17Z LMN and 18Z DDC soundings), MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg will support large-hail potential for as long as the supercell structure persists. Severe RFD and outflow gusts will also continue to be possible. Low-level shear/SRH are also sufficient for some tornado threat, though the ongoing HP structure and extensive outflow will tend to limit tornado potential to some extent. Given the isolated nature and uncertain duration of the ongoing threat, the need for watch issuance remains uncertain. However, in the short term, a localized but potentially substantial severe threat may spread across south-central KS, near and north of Wichita. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT... LAT...LON 37989805 38129728 38099653 37639645 37559666 37489708 37519746 37589785 37989805 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN