FXUS02 KWBC 230800 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 30 2026 ...Overview... Shortwave energy emanating from mean troughing centered over the Gulf of Alaska will track across the northern tier late this week before amplifying over the East Coast this weekend. Upper-level ridging will promote above average temperatures in the West, before an East Pacific trough shifts the ridge east and suppresses warm air over the Southwest. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models are in good agreement regarding the synoptic evolution of the mid level pattern as outlined in the overview beginning late this week. There's a trend toward a slower shortwave propagation across the northern tier mid-to-late this week. Thus, QPF has trended upward over the Midwest as a result. Ensemble member uncertainty picks up over the speed of the shortwave as it moves through the Northeast this weekend, as well as the speed/timing of the approaching East Pacific trough. A general model blend consisting of the available deterministic and Ai guidance were sufficient enough to capture the main synoptic features on Thursday and Friday. The ensemble means are introduced on day 5, and quickly make up a majority of the blend on days 6 and 7. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A low pressure system departing into the Canadian Maritime will produce some snow across the interior Northeast on Wednesday. Another system will track from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast beginning Wednesday. This system will bring rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into early Thursday, followed by snow across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast/northern New England on Thursday and Friday. Rain will occur along the leading edge of the cold front, spreading across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. There will also be some opportunity for some moderate rains and some wintry weather sliding southward with the cooling central to eastern U.S. wavy front next weekend with shortwave energy passages. There may also be spotty stronger thunderstorms over the south-central U.S. into the upper ridge with dryline and/or frontal approach that would be slow to translate if they manage to develop. An anomalous ridge will continue to generate well above average temperatures from the Southwest to the southern central U.S. through mid-week. High temperatures from the upper 70s to low 90s from the Four Corners to the Central/Southern Plains will be 30-40 degrees above average on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread temperature records may be tied or broken from the Southwest to the Mississippi Valley during this time. Mild temperatures, low dewpoints and gusty winds will increase the threat of fires over portions of the Central High Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$