FXUS62 KILM 201903
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Strong isolated thunderstorm possible Sat evening, mainly along
or west of the I-95 corridor, mainly west of a Lumberton to
Florence line.

Updated 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures slated for Sat through Mon before
much cooler temperatures arrive following a strong cold frontal
passage late Mon.

2) There is a marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe
storms Saturday evening over NW areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures slated for Sat through
Mon before much cooler temperatures arrive following a strong
cold frontal passage late Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Upper ridging to prevail Sat thru
Sun and flatten-some Mon. Sfc pressure pattern and gradient to
yield SW winds thru the period. Expect widespread 80s for max
temps thru the period. with a somewhat pinned sea breeze Sat
and Sun, keeping temps in the low to mid 70s at the beaches.
MOS Guidance paints mid to possibly upper 80s Sun/Mon with aid
coming from subsidence and a downslope trajectory in the wind
field in the low to mid levels. Ie. Involving some
compressional heating. Flow aloft flattens-some Mon into Tue,
allowing a sfc cold front, accompanied by isolated showers and
tstorms to push thru late Mon. Only isolated in coverage due to
the limited moisture available. Cool, dry and strong high
pressure ridging ridging in from the NE States will follow Tue
into Wed. At or slightly below normal temps to follow as a
result.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...There is a marginal risk (threat
level 1 of 5) of severe storms Saturday evening over NW areas.

Daytime Saturday should remain dry across the area with the
column remaining fairly dry and no organized lifting mechanism.
A ribbon of higher moisture glides into the area Saturday
evening along with weak mid-level shortwave energy moving in
from the WNW. This will spark some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over NW areas. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, in part due to the fairly low rain
chances, but there is a marginal risk of large hail with any
storm due to steep mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km in
association with cool temps aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to dominate the 18Z Taf issuance period. Will see high
level clouds move across the area mainly tonight into Sat as a
weak sfc cold front drops south and stalls just north of the
area terminals tonight thru Sat. Weak sfc pg this afternoon will
tighten-some tonight into Sat ahead of the cold front while at
the same time a 35 to 40 kt Southwesterly LLJ combine to keep SW
winds active at the sfc. In addition, a LLWS will be advertised
across all terminals. Winds become more westerly by midday Sat.

Extended Forecast...VFR to dominate. CFP Mon may be accompanied
by isolated tstorms. Strong dry and cool high pressure to build
in from the north Tue thru Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...High pressure to slide off the coast and
offshore this afternoon. Light and variable wind direction will
become southerly 5 to 10 kt this aftn, with the hier end of the
range nearshore due to an active but weak sea breeze into this
evening. The sc pg to tighten tonight into Sat as a weak cold
front drops south, stalling across NC, just north of the local
waters. Looking at SW winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt tonight
into early Sat with a SW'erly LLJ overhead. The cool stable
marine layer, above low to mid 50s SSTs, will prevent the
majority of those winds from mixing down to the ocean sfc. SW to
W winds will diminish-some Sat due to a relaxed-some sfc pg due
to the cold front in close proximity. Could even observe a
pinned decent southerly sea breeze Sat aftn/evening. An E-ESE 10
second period 2 to 4 ft swell will dominate the seas spectrum
this aftn into this evening. SW wind chop may equalize the power
between the 2 later tonight into Sat but as the winds diminish-
some Sat, the 10 second period swell will prevail, except
nearshore where a Sat afternoon/evening sea breeze will produce
wind chop.

Saturday Night through Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions continue
this weekend with broad sfc high pressure positioned off to the
south. A SCA is then likely Monday night into Tuesday as N/NE
winds gust up to 25-30 kt following a cold fropa. Improving
marine conditions thereafter as sfc high pressure builds in.
Seas mainly 2-4 ft through Monday increase up to 5-7 ft with
the front Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/MAS
DISCUSSION...DCH/MAS
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MAS