ACUS11 KWNS 161458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161457
NYZ000-PAZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into far southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161457Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A line of showers is likely to strengthen by late morning
into the early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of showers has developed along a pre-frontal
trough across central Pennsylvania this morning. Based on SPC
mesoanalysis, it is currently in a very weakly unstable environment.
However, as it moves farther east, temperatures are warmer (mid 60s
F) with some low 60s dewpoints. As temperatures cool aloft, this
should result in greater instability through the late morning and
into the early afternoon.

Additional strengthening of this line and additional storm
development ahead of this line may result in some increase severe
weather threat. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes (given
the strong low-level shear), will be the primary threat.

As the intensity of this convection increases, a tornado watch may
be needed.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40517554 39877567 39777623 39807753 40277800 40907797
            41597785 42117762 42507654 42347532 41877503 40517554

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH