ACUS11 KWNS 161123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161123
SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-161300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...western NC and SC into central GA

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 63...64...

Valid 161123Z - 161300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 63, 64 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and some potential for embedded tornadoes
remain possible with an eastward-moving QLCS.

DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented broken line has shown some recent
signs of re-intensification as it moves east of the Appalachians.
Here, a corridor of lower/middle 60s dewpoints is contributing to
weakly unstable surface-based inflow for this system. Despite the
marginal buoyancy in place, the strong low/deep-layer flow/shear
continues to favor damaging winds. Additionally, a few deeper cores
with mesovortex structure have recently evolved along the southern
part of the line (where boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy are
maximized), which could pose a risk of a brief tornado and locally
enhanced wind damage. This risk should be highest where deep-layer
shear is oriented oblique to the line (i.e., NNW/SSE-oriented parts
of the line).

..Weinman.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35778266 36068247 36178189 36058146 35758118 35208133
            34358176 33698231 32828305 32308363 32118413 32168460
            32298491 32868457 33848355 34308329 34978289 35778266

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH