ACUS11 KWNS 161002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161001
GAZ000-FLZ000-161130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central GA into far northern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161001Z - 161130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for some increase in severe-storm potential.

DISCUSSION...Along and east of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet
(per VWP) extending across parts of GA into SC, broad/weak positive
theta-e advection amid middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and
limited inhibition is yielding widely scattered thunderstorm
development. While most of these updrafts have been shallow, a
couple isolated storms in south-central GA have shown signs of
organization and pose a risk of a tornado and locally damaging gusts
in the near term. Given low-level clockwise hodograph curvature and
the rich boundary-layer moisture, there is some potential for
additional intensification within this corridor. However, the
weak/unfocused forcing for ascent limits confidence in this
scenario, and the need for a watch is uncertain (though trends are
being monitored).

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30878470 31278470 32718350 33118281 33108227 32878194
            32278184 31548216 31208235 30718284 30498367 30608436
            30878470

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH