ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing east towards the southeastern U.S.
coast will continue to migrate offshore and southward along the FL
peninsula through Friday morning. This boundary will eventually
stall across south FL before gradually lifting north as a very
diffuse warm frontal zone. Diurnal heating of a moist and largely
uncapped environment will support thunderstorm development by early
to mid-afternoon - especially along the southwestern FL coastline
where sea-breeze interactions will locally augment ascent. Very weak
flow through 6 km will limit the potential for organized severe
thunderstorms, though the thermodynamic profiles may support very
isolated strong downburst winds.

Further north, an intense cyclone will traverse the lower Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the day. Cold mid-level
temperatures may support adequate instability for sporadic lightning
flashes along the NY/PA border. Strong (40-50 knot winds) just above
the surface may be mechanically mixed to the surface by any shallow
convection that can develop, as hinted by recent HRRR solutions.
However, morning guidance depicts considerable spread regarding CAPE
availability that limits confidence in the overall lightning (or
severe wind) potential.

..Moore.. 03/12/2026

$$