ACUS01 KWNS 060609
SWODY1
SPC AC 060608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern Great Plains to the
Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and
isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
An upper wave within a broader positive-tilt trough will eject out
of CO and into the northern Plains late in the day, with a 70+ kt
midlevel jet moving from NM across KS, NE, and into IA and MN late.
South of this jet, height tendencies will be relatively neutral for
much of the period, with falls generally from KS northward late in
the day.

At the surface, a cold front will push south to a southern MN to
southwest KS line by 00Z, with low pressure over southern
KS/northwest OK. A dryline will extend south from the low into
western OK and west-central TX at the same time. East of the
dryline, dewpoints will rise firmly into the mid 60s F.

Meanwhile, a warm front will push rapidly north across IA/IL/IN
during the day, reaching into southern WI and southern Lower MI by
late afternoon. Above the moistening boundary layer, a broad fetch
of 40-60 kt southwest winds at 850 mb will exist, aiding both
theta-e advection and enhancing low-level shear over a large area.

...Southern Great Plains to the Midwest...
A complex forecast scenario will exist today, with multiple areas of
severe potential, some highly conditional. Large-scale ascent
appears to be most favorable from the surface low in KS
northeastward along the cold front, and along portions of the warm
front from IA eastward. Bouts of thunderstorms are probable across
IA and vicinity, with both bowing structures and supercells
producing wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms are
expected along the warm front across parts of IL, IN, and into
southern Lower MI, and while instability will be weaker, low-level
shear will favor rotating storms and perhaps some tornado risk.

Another focused area of potential will be from northern TX into
eastern OK, western AR and southwest MO, where increasingly deep
moisture to 700 mb and daytime heating well east of the dryline may
yield a zone of tornado potential. Mid 60s F dewpoints, southwest
850 mb winds to 50 kt and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 suggest any
storms that form within this zone may have tornado potential.

A more conditional risk of supercells, including tornado and very
large hail, will exist along the length of the dryline from
south-central KS across parts of central OK and into western-north
Texas. Here, models are having difficulty producing precipitation
with a relatively stationary dryline and the wave passing well to
the north. However, strong heating west of the dryline will occur,
at least a narrow zone of isolated supercell potential will develop.
Perhaps after a full days heating and toward 00Z, an isolated
supercell or two will be able to form somewhere along the dryline,
assuming capping remains minimal and low-level convergence is
non-zero. Very large hail as well as tornadoes are conditionally
possible in this scenario.

Overnight as the cold front continues southeast across northeast OK
and MO, shear will remain favorable for QLCS tornadoes.

..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/06/2026

$$