FXUS66 KMFR 031723 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR Issued by National Weather Service Portland OR 923 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026 .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Key Points: * Snow: Minor impacts Wed/Wed night - Cascades: Amounts mainly for elevations above 4,000 ft - Winter Weather Advisory for Crater Lake area * Rainfall: Minor/limited impacts Wed/Wed night - Not expecting flooding - Mainly nuisance ponding on roadways * Wind: Minor/limited impacts Wed/Wed night - Wind gusts of 35-40 mph Further Details: Wednesday remains the most noteworthy day of the forecast (and focus for this discussion) given potential impacts from snow, rain, and wind. However, these impacts are expected to be minor/limited. Snowfall rates could briefly reach upwards around 0.5"-1.0"/hr for a few hours Wednesday morning between 6am and 10am. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas/passes around Crater Lake where amounts will be highest and could disrupt travel. Snow accumulation generally expected across the higher terrain of the Cascades north of highway 140 above 4000 ft. Amounts generally around 4-12 inches expected through the roughly 30 hour event tonight through Wednesday night. Otherwise, rain will spread across the region starting as early as Tuesday night as a cold front enter the region. These chances will spread west to east through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts around 0.50"-1.25" will be possible along and near the coast as well as areas of Douglas County. Highest amounts across the coastal ranges. The probability for 24hr rainfall 1.00" or greater is ~20%-60% for areas near the coast and coastal ranges in addition to higher terrain of Douglas County. Not expecting flooding, but nuisance type ponding on roadways could lead to some travel disruption. Other areas will see less rainfall, especially valleys where downsloping will limit accumulations. Eastside areas will also be on the much lesser end of the spectrum. Wind gusts probabilities remain borderline for advisory conditions. For the most part, gusts are expected to be around 35 to 40 mph with only isolated areas of potential gusts near 45mph. Will continue to hold off on any wind headlines. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... Latest satellite imagery continues to highlight valley fog which surface observations show is beginning to lift to low stratus in some locations late this morning. IFR cigs/vis likely (50-80% chance) to continue through 20-21z Tue as diurnal mixing slowly develops, allowing vis to improve and cigs to lift to VFR. Rogue Valley terminals and terminals east of the Cascades will see substantial clearing beneath high cirrus coverage at or above 20 kft through this afternoon. A frontal boundary will arrive tonight, by 06-08z Wed along the coast, 09-11z Wed inland to the Cascades, and after 12z Wed east of the Cascade crest, bringing rain showers to the region. MVFR cigs/vis are favored (50-70% chance) west of the Cascades, while VFR conditions are more likely to persist on the east side. Southwest to west winds increase to 5-10 kt behind the frontal boundary, with gusts of 15-20 kt along the coast. Beyond 18z Wed, downslope gusts east of the Cascades look to increase above 20-25 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 820 AM PST Tuesday, March 3, 2026...Winds increase and seas steepen today through Wednesday as a front moves through the area. Showers and low visibility are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday. Steep west seas follows through the end of the week, with westerly winds becoming more northerly through later parts of the week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ027. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$