ACUS11 KWNS 312208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312207 TXZ000-NMZ000-010000- Mesoscale Discussion 0923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312207Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across portions of southwest Texas. The most likely hazard will be strong gusty outflow winds with collapsing updrafts, but a few large hail reports may be possible with the strongest updrafts. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating and weak large-scale ascent from a subtle low-latitude short-wave trough have combined to support thunderstorm development this afternoon across portions of southwest Texas. The thermodynamic environment across the area is characterized by MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, with most storms developing near the higher MUCAPE values across the eastern portion of the highlighted area. Kinematically speaking, the overall environment is rather unfavorable for organized, sustained severe thunderstorms, with deep-layer shear generally less than 25 knots. Given storm development within an environment an uncapped environment with MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg and steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The degree of instability and steep-mid-level lapse rates suggests the potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest updraft cores, and the steep low-level lapse rates should support strong thunderstorm outflows, especially with any collapsing core. The overall severe threat should remain fairly isolated, thus a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29370422 31050430 31620404 32120372 32320296 32140216 31690148 31390131 29730193 29750227 29640258 29200284 28900306 28910333 29180393 29370422 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN