ACUS11 KWNS 272209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272208
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...portion of eastern Oklahoma into central/southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272208Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may bring a low-end risk for
isolated gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar imagery depicted
scattered thunderstorms extending from eastern Oklahoma into
central/southern Arkansas immediately downstream of a mid-level
perturbation and in close proximity to a surface low analyzed near
the Red River. A couple of storms have shown signs of transient,
weak rotation and/or modestly enhanced velocity signatures over the
past hour. Expectation is for this activity to continue for another
few hours amid a moist and weak to modestly unstable environment
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg). While marginal deep-layer shear
(generally less than 30 kts) and poor mid-level lapse rates, as
sampled by the 18z SHV observed sounding, are largely expected to
temper updraft intensity, high precipitable water contents
(1.75-2.00+ inches per latest mesoanalysis) may promote occasional
water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated gusty winds (largely in
the 40-45 mph range). A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out,
especially where a stronger low-level updraft can interact with
marginally enhanced low-level shear to the north-northeast of the
surface low. Given the expectation for any severe threat to remain
isolated and limited in magnitude, a WW is unlikely.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   33349352 33839395 34119450 34489535 34579588 34629611
            34819626 34999637 35449636 35759624 35989594 36129550
            36139465 35989397 35779343 35329282 34899240 34529225
            33969207 33469212 33199226 33029250 32879294 33009321
            33349352

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH