FXUS63 KEAX 252001 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 301 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unsettled weather conditions begin to return overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. - The severe weather and flooding threat appears low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 A pleasant Memorial Day across the area, especially if you enjoy warmer/warming temperatures. With surface elongated area of surface high pressure now centered over the southern Great Lakes, SSE/S winds have broadly moved into the area. This, along bit warmer 850mb temps and general mid-upper level height rises, have helped yield highs on their way to the mid-80s through the rest of the afternoon/early evening. The "nice" factor is also aided by dew points remaining down in the 50s to low 60s. A gradual end to the clear conditions remains forecast through the week, with little substantial change to previous forecast packages. The large scale pattern will gradually transition to an Omega Block look as a cutoff mid-upper level low digs down the West Coast, a series of troughs drive down toward New England, and amplified ridging in between. Initially, a weakening mid-upper level low will lift out of Texas/Southern Plains, and is currently seen clearly on WV imagery over central/east Texas. The trend here has been for slowing onset of any precipitation, now generally eliminating chances Tuesday and pushing chances into early if not mid-day Wednesday. This trend is unsurprising with antecedent dry air mass and weak lift/filling nature of the low/trough. Synoptic guidance hints at the possibility any widespread accumulating rain chances may hold off until a open shortwave trough rounding the western CONUS cutoff low lifts out of the Southern High Plains. This would push PoPs toward the latter portions of Wednesday or later, depending on the model suite you latch onto. NBM PoP trends align with this, keeping most of the CWA dry until after 18z Wednesday. Even then, PoPs <40 are a lower trend from previous cycle. Through the remainder of the work week, a weak Rex Block look too develops through central CONUS. Some variance in deterministic and ensemble guidance as to just how far northward widespread shower/storm activity can get as a battle with south/southeastward dropping surface high and associated dry air ensues. Through this time frame, Thursday/Friday, best chances for accumulating rain will be as you work southward through Missouri. Some low-end chances for precipitation may continue into/through the weekend depending on the progression/placement of the surface high. The risk for flooding and any strong/severe storms remains quite low with lackluster environment given the prolonged and meandering weak lift and general flow. Expect mainly showers with occasional non-severe thunder. Temperatures peak Tuesday/Wednesday in the mid 80s for most. A few may top out in the upper 80s, namely western areas. Then a handful or more degrees cooler to round out the week and into the weekend with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, pushing highs more toward the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 VFR conditions prevail across the sites with not much more to talk about really. Winds out of the S/SSE through the day with occasional gusts into the teens kts. Winds ease overnight and become SE through the remainder of the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis