FXUS63 KBIS 251737 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1237 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures through the first half of this week, with near-record highs around 90 to 95 today and Tuesday. - Dry weather today, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night, followed by better chances for precipitation later this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Limited updates needed early this afternoon. Mainly updated discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 940 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Forecast remains on track with little updates needed this morning. Overall look for mainly clear skies today and well above normal temperatures. Highs in the 90s could approach daily records. Dry conditions in place will limit the heat risk today, with afternoon humidity values in the teens and 20s expected. Light winds are also expected today. UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 There were no changes to the forecast with this product issuance. See below for further discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Currently, quasi-zonal/west-northwest flow aloft with a low- amplitude mid level ridge anchored across the Rocky Mountains. Mostly clear this morning with upper level clouds pushing south into the region from Canada. Large area of upper level low pressure sliding south-southeast along the eastern Pacific/west coastal region early this week will result in the aforementioned ridge to our west amplifying today into Tuesday and developing east into the Northern Plains. Increasing southerly low/mid level flow will trend temperatures warmer to start the week, with highs today through Wednesday forecast in the mid 80s to mid 90s, near record values for some locations. This flow pattern will support a nocturnal low level jet each night through the middle of the week, resulting in possible nighttime elevated convection. Various CAMs show activity each night (including tonight), while the NBM keeps tonight dry but does have chances Tuesday night. Models do show elevated instability as well, so will be something worth monitoring. The upper low moves inland as it digs into the Desert Southwest through Wednesday, strengthening a lee-side surface low to our west and resulting in breezy south/southeasterly winds Tuesday through Thursday. This will increase fire weather concerns across the west (where HRB/fuel moisture is lowest). Will continue to mention in the HWO. Thereafter, ensembles continue to favor the upper ridge gradually weakening/displaced east as the western CONUS low slowly shifts east/morphs into a trough and lifts north. This pattern will favor a cooling trend and increasing chances for precipitation, and the latest NBM shows these trends well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Mainly dry conditions with upper level clouds are also expected. Light and somewhat variable winds today will become a southeast wind tonight. A breezy southeast wind is then expected for Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH