ACUS11 KWNS 241939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241939
TXZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of north and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241939Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms may pose a sporadic risk for
strong to severe gusts this afternoon and early evening. A WW is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across portions
of north TX.  These initial storms have developed along a diffuse
remnant boundary where low-level confluence has helped to erode
ambient inhibition faster. Strong heating amid a seasonably moist
surface air mass (dewpoints 65-70 F) should continue this afternoon,
which will result in a broadly unstable (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
environment over much of the southern Plains. Additional development
is likely, both within the warm sector in central TX, and ahead of a
remnant MCV over western north TX through the next couple of hours.

While the environment is unstable, vertical shear is very weak
(generally under 15 kts). This will favor a pulse multicell mode
with little organization potential. Some CAM solutions suggest
clustering is possible, which could support sporadic stronger gusts
with downbursts. Thus, while some severe potential is evident, a WW
is likely not needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31140013 31450006 32669942 33259930 33939827 33319673
            32719599 31929590 31219656 30649714 30459762 30219804
            30069867 30059917 30189983 31140013

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH