FXUS66 KOTX 231535 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 835 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the weekend with breezy winds especially for the Cascades and central WA. - High confidence for a cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin especially Saturday and Sunday. There is high confidence for cooler and unsettled conditions to return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Morning update: Some echoes have been showing up around the Canadian border already this morning. Yesterday the convective over-achieved compared to what models were showing. This afternoon there is some more instability and models are showing some showers again. Overall I increased shower chances today and this early evening over north-central and northeast WA and north ID. Some embedded t-storms are possible. Otherwise the predominant weather will be dry and warm. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION Today through Sunday: The region will be under a zonal flow pattern. The period will remain precip free except for small chances (up to 20 percent) over Northeast Washington and North Idaho on Saturday afternoon. These areas also have a low chance of producing an isolated lightning strike. For the rest of the period, winds will be main concern. Saturday will have stronger gusts with a tighter pressure gradient. Gusts into the 30s expected through the Cascade valleys and Western Columbia Basin. Probabilities are at least 50 percent for these areas. Okanogan Valley has a 36 percent probability. Sunday sees the gusts weaken back into the 20s. Trends have increased the temperatures for Saturday with most reaching into the 80s. Sunday highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. The winds, warm temperatures, and dry conditions will elevate quick fire spread concerns through the Memorial Weekend. Winds are not expected to be strong for dust concerns. But some localized areas near recently worked fields can't be ruled out. Overnight lows will be in the balmy in the upper 40s and 50s. Monday through Friday: Ensembles have come into decent agreement on a decent Low moving through the Pacific Northwest for Monday and Tuesday. The track of the Low has shifted west from previous runs. It is now sliding down the coast longer before moving inland. It has led to a decrease in precip chances and amounts. The system will start with gusty winds on Monday morning followed by showers and possible isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon. Winds will be highest across the Basin and through the Okanogan Valley. Speeds will be the upper teens to low 20s with gusts into the upper 20s and 30s. Probability of 40 or greater gusts is highest around Moses Lake and Othello with 20-40 percent. Precip amounts of a tenth or two are expected for Monday. Snow levels drop to around 4800 ft in the Cascades. Light snow is possible but with little no accumulation expected. Ensembles continue to struggle with the Monday highs. It continues a 10-15 degree spread of 25-75 percent probability. With increasing clouds through the morning, Monday highs will dip into the upper 60s and 70s. It could inhibit any surface based instability and keep thunderstorm potential to less than 10 percent. The Low will slowly slide east through Wednesday morning. Agreement in the extended is very low for the weather. Shower activity will mainly be over the higher terrain, Eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. There is a hint of wrap around showers for the Western Basin overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will be calmer with gusts into the teens. Agreement in the extended is very low for the weather. It is expected to be warming. It is expected to be warming. Some members are keeping the region precip free, while others carry afternoon convective showers Thursday and Friday. Highs will be coolest on Tuesday with a range of 60s. They will steadily climb Wednesday through Friday back into the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be mild with the cloud cover. Lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Calming winds and clearing skies expected overnight. On Saturday a weather system passing into British Columbia will bring a slight uptick in the winds across Central and Eastern WA, with west-southwest winds gusting to 15-20 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in continued VFR conditions this weekend. JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 81 51 77 50 80 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 50 Coeur d'Alene 78 50 75 49 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 Pullman 77 48 74 48 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Lewiston 84 52 83 52 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Colville 82 44 79 44 79 41 / 10 10 0 0 0 60 Sandpoint 77 48 75 47 78 46 / 10 10 0 0 0 50 Kellogg 78 49 76 48 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 40 Moses Lake 86 49 82 49 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Wenatchee 83 55 80 55 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Omak 86 52 80 52 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$