FOCN45 CWWG 111900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY MAY
11 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...NONE AT THIS TIME.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LOW SITS NEAR
RESOLUTE WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH DUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS OF THE US. WITHIN THIS TROUGH, TWO STRONG DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EASTWARD; A NORTHERN DISTURBANCE NEAR ENNADAI LAKE, AND
A SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE NEAR YORKTON. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE RESOLUTE LOW OVER BAFFIN ISLAND AND ONWARDS
THROUGH LABRADOR AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BETWEEN THE TROUGHS, AND A
LARGER UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE, THERE ARE 1001 MB LOWS NEAR NAUJAAT AND YORKTON
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTS JUST INTO THE NORTHERN PRAIRIES AS WELL
AS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGHS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA,
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. A 1003 MB
OCCLUDED LOW IS DECAYING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

DISCUSSION...

ALBERTA...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER ASIDE FROM RISK OF A TS IN A FEW
SPOTS, PRIMARILY IN THE FOOTHILLS OVER SRN AB, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
JET COMING ACROSS FROM BC. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
MEAGER SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE NON-SEVERE AND ISOLATED
IN NATURE. THE OTHER AREA OF TS RISK IS OVER NE SECTIONS, ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AGAIN, ANY TS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED
AND NON-SEVERE IN NATURE.

MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN...THE SOUTHERN LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO
TRACK SWIFTLY TOWARD THE SK/MB BORDER. SHOWERS, AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS, DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN SK WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND ARE NOW GENERALLY RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH ALSO ALONG THE
SK/MB BORDER LATE THIS MORNING. MORE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION IS
SET UP IN THE WRAP AROUND TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL SK. FOR AMOUNTS,
AN AREA FROM LA RONGE EAST TO THE FLIN FLON/THE PAS COULD SEE 15 TO
25 MM ALONG ITS TRACK WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH BEING MORE SPORADIC.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLIES GUSTING UP TO 70 KM/H OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

IN BEHIND THE NORTHERN LOW, AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COLD
TROUGH, MAY TRIGGER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CAPE IS WEAK WITH MODERATE SHEAR, BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW STRIKES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK TODAY, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE SETTING UP
BEHIND THE LOW TROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL COOLING IS BRINGING THE MID LEVELS
TO NEAR DRY ADIABATIC, AND MANAGING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE DESPITE LOW MOISTURE. THIS, COMBINED WITH 40 KNOTS OF
SHEAR OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING WILL CERTAINLY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THESE AREAS AS WELL.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE DRY LOW LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED
INVERTED-V PROFILES BRINGING STRONG WIND GUSTS BEYOND 90 KM/H AS
CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN SHOWERS COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTIC
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW. THE BROAD AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE HUMBOLDT REGION SOUTHWARDS TO THE AMERICAN
BORDER AND EAST TO THE MANITOBA BORDER. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND A WIND WARNING/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED ONCE A COMBINED AREA OF SYNOPTIC WIND PLUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES CLEAR.

NWT...RISK OF TS FOR AREAS NEAR GREAT SLAVE LAKE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE
AB BORDER IN CONNECTION WITH THE SAME SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SIMILAR TO PARTS OF ALBERTA, ANY TS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED AND NON-SEVERE IN NATURE. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG SOUTH OF GREAT
SLAVE LAKE WITH PERHAPS 15-20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

NUNAVUT...A LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE KITIKMEOT TODAY,
WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY , BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW DIFFICULT TO PICK UP AND BLOW AROUND, EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OFFSET FROM FALLING SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL
MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING RESEMBLING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

ERN NU...PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KIVALLIQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS HOVERING NEAR ZERO, A MIX OF
RAIN, SNOW, RISK OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH
THE LOW STRONGLY OCCLUDED ALREADY, LOW LEVELS GENERALLY GO
ISOTHERMAL AT 0C FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A FAST
SWITCHOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW OR VICE VERSA, WITH A BRIEFER
RISK OF FZRA IN BETWEEN.

END/KNIGHT/GREENHOUGH